Test a promise against what someone actually arranges

A family member promises three times that they will henceforth submit all documents on time. Three times the documents arrive late again. The promise may be sincere, but for practical organisation it is the recurring behaviour that is most relevant.

Which decision becomes more reliable if you look at what someone repeatedly does, rather than only at what they promise?

A promise deserves attention. So does a pattern. Trust grows stronger when words and behaviour head in the same direction over time.

One incident does not yet make a pattern. Look at repetition over time and the context.